Someone forwarded me a soccer world cup prediction made by a group of 'economists' soothsaying that the Italians will beat the Brazillians at the final next month. Their analysis is elaborate, the presentation beautiful. Time itself would oscilate whether to treat them as oracles or simply ridiculous wiseguys. Seeing from how the financial world makes decisions, however, it may no doubt affect some people, such as how betters bet in the betting games; more or less. At some rate the prediction will prove self-fulfilling or -defeating, and at either case we're bound to attach a definite conclusion to it.
The case in point shows how powerful economics has been in most aspects of living. If our old Earth continues to be raped at this very moment, the strongest justifications have been, first of all, thanks to our mistaking the notion of or manipulating this youngest science. Economics at its best may be able to show us what the Italians need to do to thrive over the Samba team. But it cannot be used meaningfully to predict terresterial human actions, especially when the two teams as well as the other 30 are competing against one another for one same economic goods. Too many variables unknown; too many intangibles. Still wonder why the World Cup is always a promise of surprises?
Update August 2006: Please see my own comment below.
3 comments:
I am assuming you are referring to the paper written (in their spare time I hope) by the economists from ABN/AMRO. They clearly don't buy what Jean Paul Sartre, the French philospher, (supposedly) said, "In football, everything is complicated by the presence of the opposite team".
hello and thanks; it's a UBS investor’s guide, special edition April 2006.
a matter of great importance for me to self-comment here:
this post has taken much of my attention since I first knew how the copa turned out. from this i've learned a bit about the law of probability vis a vis mathematization of economics. my view is based on the following: if germany or brazil was to play against the much weaker indonesian soccer team, most probably we (indonesians) would be beaten. the probability or likelihood would of course be not 100% but nevertheless, very big. so, to conclude more accurately, statistics is cool!
my view on economics and its limitation remains un-undermined, but want congratulate the ubs' investor's guide for their great prediction.
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